中国国际收支与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship Balance of Payments and China Economic Growth

国际收支与经济增长的关系是开放经济下内外均衡的首要问题,国际收支平衡表作为对外开放的事后会计性记录,它的结构及各组成账户与经济增长的关系在一定程度上反映了国际收支与经济增长的关系。把国际收支平衡表作为对外开放的事后会计性记录,从内外均衡的视角用协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验法研究贸易账户、资本账户和外汇储备与中国经济增长的关系,得出进口、出口、进出口、外商直接投资、外汇储备与中国经济增长有长期稳定的均衡关系,中国经济增长是出口、进口、进出口、引进外商直接投资及外汇储备变化的格兰杰原因,较之于出口,进出口对中国经济增长的作用更明显。

The relationship between the international payments and economic growth is prime to the Internal and External Balance in the open economy. The balance of international payment sheet is considered as an accounting record of opening to the outside. The connection between its structure and components and economic growth reveals that international payments concern economic growth to a certain extent. Taking the balance of international payment sheet as an accounting record of opening to the outside, this paper explores, in angle of Internal and External Balance, the connection which the economic growth of China have to trade accounts, capital accounts and foreign exchange holdings, and concludes that this is a long-term stable balance relation, that the economic growth is the Granger reason of the changes of import, export, import-export, foreign direct investment（FDI） and exchange holdings, while contrarily the conclusion is not alike and that the import as well as import-export contributes more to the economic growth of China compared to export.