国际工程承包风险预警系统的实证研究

Empirical Research on Early Warning System of International Engineering Contract

国际工程承包风险预警系统是国际工程承包商通过建立风险评估体系和进行风险控制来预防、化解风险的发生,将风险造成的损失降到最低的有效手段。国际工程承包风险预警系统包含了3个模块,分别为风险识别分析、风险预警和风险规避对策。风险识别模块是系统地对风险相关事件进行挖掘与分类的过程;在对风险进行识别和分析的基础上,风险预警模块的主要任务是确定风险预警的指标体系,将某一风险指标的得分与事先确定的预警范围相互比较,对超出警戒范围的风险因素进行预警,并运用数学方法建立综合评价模型,测算出各种指标对国际工程承包的综合作用情况,得出该国际工程承包项目的风险程度;风险对策模块针对发出预警信号的风险因素分析其性质,寻找应对的方法,使承包商尽量规避风险,减少甚至不遭受损失。

The early warning system of international engineering contract is an effective means to guard against risks and decrease the risk loss to the lowest degree. The early warning system includes three modules： risk identification and analysis module, early-warning module and risk countermeasure module. Risk identification and analysis module is a process carrying on systematical risk mining and categorizing. With this analytical foundation, the main mission of the risk early-warning module is to design a risk early-warning index system, compare the score of a certain risk index with the early-warning scope, and send out an early warning signal if the risk factor outruns the early-warning scope. Moreover, a comprehensive evaluation model is set up to measure the comprehensive function of those various risks to the international engineering contract, and get the risk degree of it. The risk countermeasure module analyzes the risk factors that send out early-warning signal, and looks for countermeasures to make the contractor evade risks as far as possible, reduce and even do not suffer loss.