陕西省生态足迹动态评价研究

Assessment of ecological footprint of Shaanxi province

应用生态足迹分析法（EFAA）计算了陕西省2000-2004年的生态足迹和生态承载力，并采用GM（1．1）模型对陕西省2005-2009年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了预测和评估。结果表明，2000-2004年陕西省人均生态足迹呈逐年上升趋势，5年间增加了0．3932hm^2，年均增长5．14％；万元GDP生态足迹呈下降趋势，人均生态承载力5年间下降了0．0575hm^2，年均减少1．22％，人均生态赤字从2000年的0．5547hm^2增加到2004年的1．0427hm^2，预计2005-2009年的人均生态足迹和生态赤字逐年增加，生态承载力减少，说明人口、资源、环境在省域尺度上处于不协调状态。最后提出了增加科技投入、改善生态环境、控制人口等平衡该地区生态需求的对策与措施。

The EFAA method was used to calculate the ecology footprint （EF） and the ecology capacity （EC） of 2000--2004 in Shaanxi and the method of GM（1.1） was adopted to calculate the development of the 2005--2009. The result shows that the EF increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004. In the five years ,the EF increased by 0. 393 2 hm^2,with the yearly average speed 5. 14% and the EF of ten thousand Yuan GDP came down every year. The EC dropped by 0. 057 5 hm^2 in the five years ,and the yearly average decrease speed was 1.22%. The ecology deficit （ED） increased continually from 0. 554 7 hm^2 in 2000 to 1. 042 7 hm^2 in 2004. It is estimated that the ecology footprint （EF） and the ecology deficit （ED） will increase from 2005 to 2009,but the ecology capacity （EC） will decrease year by year. This shows that the population,the resources and the environment are not in coordination in the province scale. In the end, some suggestions were put forward to balance the ecological relationship between supply and demand. The suggestions were adding the investment of science and technology,transforming the ecological environment ,controlling the population, ect.