投资主导金市继续走牛——2006年上半年黄金市场评述及展望

Gold Price Continues a Bull Market

2006年上半年,黄金价格冲破了过去几年平稳的上涨态势,快速上涨,并在5月中旬创下了25年新高,达到730美元/盎司。然而在达到高点仅仅几个交易日之后,随着多头对空头围剿的结束,大量的基金获利平仓,价格很快下跌。5月中旬到6月中旬,金价便从730美元/盎司跌至560美元/盎司,跌幅达到了30.36%,是过去多年以来罕见的。尽管价格从高点下跌,但是从长期的态势来看,黄金的牛市并未结束,后期还有继续上冲高点的可能。美元疲软、原油价格高涨、通货膨胀以及地缘政治等因素都将继续促使投资者买入黄金,从而推动黄金价格上扬。

In first half year of 2006, the gold price took off dramatically. The price reached 730 us dollar/ounce, a 25-year high in mid-May. But after few days, the price fell crazy in pressure of fund selling. From mid-May to mid-June, gold price fell by 30.36%, or 170 dollar. Although the gold price has dropped sharply, we still forecast gold bull hasn＇t been over in long term. It is possible that gold price continues to reach high point in second half of year. The higher energy price, soft dollar and global inflation will drive more investors to invest gold market.