小浪底水利枢纽大坝变形的灰色预测模型

Grey prediction model of dam deformation of XiaoLangdi multi purpose project

在分析大坝变形预测方法的基础上,首次运用灰色理论和方法通过模型的建立、模型精度检验过程得出用于预测大坝变形的GM(1,1)模型,并用该模型对小浪底水利枢纽大坝坝顶视准线部分监测点的变形量进行了预测,预测取得比较满意的结果,证明此模型在实际工程中应用是可行的,同时为大坝安全运行提供了重要的依据。

Based on analysis of prediction methods of the dam deformation,a GM(1,1) model for the deformation of the dam of Xiaolangdi multipurpose project has been proposed with grey theory and methods practically applied for the first time.The displacement of some observation sites is predicted by means of this model.The satisfactory effect is achieved through the modeling and computation.The predication accuracy proves that the model can be used in practice.Moreover,it also provides the important basis for the dam safety.