塔里木河流域气候与径流变化及生态修复

Changes of Climate and Runoff in Tarim River Basin and Ecosystem Restoration in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River

从20世纪90年代中期开始,塔里木河流域气温上升、降水增加,阿克苏河、开都河等主要河流几乎同步进入持续的丰水周期时段,为塔里木河流域生态修复创造了绝好的“天时”和历史性机遇.这种大区域的气候异常变化现象引起了国内外广大学者的广泛关注,区域气候异常变化是全球气温上升影响盆地气候向温湿转型,还是一个世纪性的水文周期变化现象,一时间成为了学术界的热点议题.系统分析了塔里木河流域山区水文气象站近50 a来的气温、降水、河川径流以及塔里木河来水量变化,并系统评价了利用开都河丰水期的有利时机,向塔里木河下游应急输水及其生态修复情况.

As air temperature rising and precipitation increasing in Tarim River Basin since the middle of 1990s, Aksu River ,Yarkent River, Kaidui River and Hotan River, which the four tributary river systems contribute flows to the Tarim River, turn simultaneously into high water （ wet-year or abundance of water） period, and providing an unusual and historical opportunity for ecosystem restoration of mainstream of Tarim River. The recently unusual climate changes in Tarim basin and Xinjiang region attract extensive attention worldwide in science and public circles. The arguments for a climatic shift to warm-humid under global warming and intensive water cycle, or change in hydrological cycle period, are becoming a discussion hotspot about the cause of the phenomena. Based on the data of temperature, precipitation and runoff of hydrological and meteorological stations in mountain areas of source rivers during last 50 years, author analysis the change of discharge of Tarim River, and evaluated emergent water transfer for ecosystem restore in the lower reaches of the Tarim River.