气候变暖对甘肃干旱气象灾害的影响

Response of Arid Meteorological Disaster to Climatic Warming in Gansu Province

应用甘肃80个地面气象站1960-2005年的降水量和气温序列资料, 分析了降水量和气温的变化趋势以及降水量和气温的变化对干旱气象灾害的影响. 结果表明： 甘肃全省年平均气温总体呈明显升高趋势, 年降水量总体呈明显减少趋势; 甘肃气候变化总体呈暖干趋势. 其中, 河西呈微弱的暖湿趋势, 河东呈显著的暖干旱趋势. 3～10月全省年平均降水量与干旱受灾面积和粮食减产量呈显著负相关, 全省平均气温与干旱受灾面积和粮食减产量均呈显著正相关. 气候暖干化趋势对农业产生的负面影响, 是导致干旱受灾面积扩大、粮食减产量增加的主要原因, 同时也影响粮食安全.

Based on the data of 60 meteorological stations including precipitation, average temperature, average minimum and maximum temperatures in March October, and materials of droughtaffected area and grain decrease in Gansu Province from 1971 to 2000, the response of arid meteorological disaster to climate change is analyzed by using statistical methods. The results indicate that the drought-affected area and the grain decrease caused by drought have significant negative correlation with precipitation, and positive correlation with average temperature, average minimum and maximum temperature. Because of climate warming, a continuous rise in temperature, and a decrease in precipitation, the extreme drought climate events took place frequently, and the climate became warmer and dryer more rapidly in Hedong in Gansu Province. All of these are important factors that enlarged the drought-affected area and resulted in a considerable decrease in grain production. This material may be used directly in monitoring, forecast and evaluation of the arid meteorological disaster, and also have certain reference significance for executing the project of ＂The Response to the Climatic Change＂.