滑坡灾害短期临滑预报监测新途径研究

New Method to Monitor and Forecast Landslide Disaster in Short-term

由于滑坡灾害的复杂性,迄今为止,尚未形成经得起大量实践验证的预报理论与方法,现仍然是地质灾害学中正在探索研究而未完全解决的难题.通过对滑坡灾害研究史、预测预报、监测技术的分析,认为在滑坡进入加速变形至剧变形破坏阶段,地表及深部监测网点及其设施遭受破坏,无法继续利用“点”式测量方法采集监测数据的情况下,地面三维激光扫描仪可不受干扰独立进行滑坡的“面”式测量,为预测预报滑坡的发生时间提供第一手连续可靠的数据资料,可进一步提高滑坡灾害预测预报的精度.

Because of the complexity of the landslide disaster, the prediction theory and method that can confront the validation of practices has not been formed so far, this problem is being researched but not resolved in geologic disaster. Through analyzing the research history, prediction, monitoring technology for landslides, this paper considers： when landslide comes from accelerating deformation into breakage deformation, the monitoring instruments on and in ground are destroyed and can not collect the deformation data; in this situation, terrestrial laser scanner can monitor the surface deformation in face-style continuously and independently that can further improve the prediction precision of landslide disaster through these first-hand and credible information.