高外贸依存度对宏观经济稳定性的影响

The Influence of High Foreign Trade Dependency to Macroeconomic Stability

利用截面数据分析了世界上一百多个国家外贸依存度与宏观经济稳定性的关系,在检验中充分考虑了经济发展情况、汇率制度、金融危机以及外部经济稳定性等因素的影响,得出的主要结论是:一个国家高外贸依存度并不会导致宏观经济的不稳定,相反,两者之间存在着微弱的负向关系。

In this article, cross data have been employed to analyze the relationship between foreign trade dependency and stability of over one hundred countries in the world. Economical development, exchange rate regime, financial crisis and outer economical stability have been fully considered in the test. The final conclusion is： higher foreign trade dependency would not causety; on the contrary, there is weak negative relationship between these two variables.