杉木种子园雌球花数量预测的研究

Study on prediction methods of femal flowers of china fir in seed orchard

用信息段和可见半面树冠雌球花法进行了杉木种子园雌球花数量的预测研究。结果表明，第５年龄段可作为信息段预测全株的雌球花数量，预测模型为：ｙ＝９８．５８＋５．９２ｘ５（ｒ＝０．８８）。两法以半面树冠雌球花法比较简单，外业工作量较小，预测全株雌球花量预测模型为：ｙ＝５２．８６＋３．９９ｘ（ｒ＝０．７９）。两种方法的预测精度都在８０％以上。

his paper studies the prediction on femal flowers in the crown of China fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb). Hook.) by methods of number of half-visible femal flowers and growth age section.The results show there is significant relationship between number of half-visible femal flowers (x) in crown and that of total crown(y).The related equation is y=52.86+3.99x(r=0.79 ** ). By way of contrast,there is much relationship between number of No.5 growth age section (x) and that of total crown (y) too. The prediction equation is y=98.58+5.92x 5(r=0.88 ** ).The forecast accuracy of this two methods are over 80% all: