西方主流利率理论与我国的利率政策

Western Main Theories of Interest Rate and Chinese Interest Rate Policy

凯恩斯学派否定了新古典学派的利率理论,认为消费和储蓄与利率无关,且利率调节经济作用不大。近年来,我国多次降低利率以调节通货紧缩,但作用不明显。其原因在于我国城乡居民人均可支配收入增长率偏低,收入分配差距过大;企业预期的投资收益率过低,现行的贷款体制向国营企业倾斜,同时发育不成熟的市场尚不能对利率作出灵敏反应。因此,在我国,财政政策仍然是宏观调控的有力工具。

The Economics of Keynes which gainsays neo-classic economics theory of interest rate, thinks that consumption and deposit has nothing to do with interest rate, and interest rate has not evident effect on adjusting economy. Resently, China decreases interest rate to adjust economy time after time, but the effect is not evident. The reasons are that the growth rate of per capita disposable income is low, the income distribution gap is too large; the investment return rate is low, present loan system prefers SOEs, and the premature market is not sensible to interest rate change. Therefore, fiscal policy is still main tools of carrying out a macro view to adjust to control.