中国公共投资与经济增长的计量分析——兼论公共投资对私人投资的挤出效应

An Econometric Analysis of China's Public Investment and Economic Growth and A Comment on the Crowding-out Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment

本文利用改革开放20多年的数据资料,对公共投资、私人投资和产出进行协整建模分析,分析结果表明我国公共投资、私人投资和产出之间存在着唯一的长期稳定的均衡关系,从长期来看,公共投资对于产出具有正向的促进作用。脉冲响应分析的结果也表明无论是短期还是长期,公共投资对产出都具有正向的促进作用。公共投资对私人投资在短期具有挤进效应,在长期则具有挤出效应,不过两种效应都比较弱。实证分析的结果所包含的政策含义在于:进一步增加公共投资的资本存量,这是保持我国经济高速增长的必要条件;在增加公共投资总量的同时,要着力优化投资结构;公共投资要有进有退,有所为,有所不为。

This paper make use of the data collected in 20 years since China＇ s reform and opening policy to make a cointegration analysis of public investment, private investment and the output. The result shows that there exists a unique, stable and long- standing equilibrious relationship among public investment, private investment and the output. In the long - run, public investment has a positive promotion of the output. And the result of impulse - response analysis also shows that whether in the long- run or in the short- run, public investment has always a positive effect on the output. Public investment has a crowding- in effect on private investment in the short- run while a crowding- out effect in the long - run. But both the effects are weak. The result of this empirical study brings some policy implications that, to keep the rapid economic growth of China, it is essential to further increase the capital stock of public investment and meanwhile to make efforts to optimize the investment structure. Public investment should be free to advance or retreat, and to decide what it should do and what it should not do.