对流有效位能在强对流预报中的应用研究

A STUDY OF APPLICATION OF CAPE IN SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER PREDICTION

利用2003年3-10月清远探空站逐日资料,得到不同气块抬升高度的对流有效位能(CAPE),利用相关统计方法,对CAPE与强降水、雷雨大风的关系进行统计分析,结果表明：不同气块起始高度得到的对流有效位能相差很大,其中最佳对流有效位能始终是最大的；CAPE850与强降水呈显著正相关；CAPE850、MUCAPE、CAPEINV与雷雨大风呈显著正相关；CAPE850、MUCAPE、CAPEINV三者中,CAPE850与强对流的相关系数最高,但计算MUCAPE,了解大气的极端不稳定状况可以减少漏报的几率；CAPE变化趋势与强对流日的对应关系在前后汛期有不同的表现,前汛期对应关系较好。

Using sounding data of Qingyuan from Mar. to Oct. in 2003, Convective Available Potential Energy （CAPE） based on different lifting altitudes was calculated. On the basis of correlation analysis, the relations between CAPE and heavy rainfall, damaging wind were statistically analyzed. The results showed that CAPE based on different lifting altitude must be different, MUCAPE was always the largest one in comparison to others. There existed pronounced positive correlations between CAPE850 and heavy rainfall, between CAPE850, MUCAPE, CAPEINV and damaging wind. Among CAPE850, MUCAPE, CAPEINV, CAPE850 had a best positive correlation to convection events. Most unstable status of the atmosphere could be known and probability of missing convection events could be diminished by referencing MUCAPE. CAPE had a better correlation to convection events in the early raining period than in the late raining period.