临朐县1980至2002年恶性肿瘤变化趋势分析

Analysis of mortality trend of cancer from 1980 to 2002 in Linqu County Shandong Province

目的分析临朐县1980到2002年恶性肿瘤的变化趋势,以掌握其变化特点及规律。方法在我国北方胃癌高发区山东省临朐县分别进行1980—1982年、1990—1992年及2000—2002年3个时期的死亡回顾调查。结果临朐县恶性肿瘤死因顺位从1980—1982年的第3位上升到2000—2002年的第2位,仅次于循环系统疾病。3个时期恶性肿瘤死亡率(及标化率)分别为108.97/10万(111.48/10万)、132.38/10万(127.94/10万)和148.48/10万(105.53/10万),死亡率呈上升趋势(Z=13.42,P<0.0001)。去恶性肿瘤后增加的期望寿命在3个时期男性分别为:2.46岁、3.29岁和3.76岁(F=13.99,P<0.0001),女性分别为:1.67岁,2.30岁和2.33岁(F=13.61,P<0.0001)。胃癌标化死亡率(及占恶性肿瘤的构成比)在3个时期分别为44.93/10万(40.29%)、41.37/10万(32.34%)和27.73/10万(26.90%),胃癌标化死亡率呈下降趋势(Z=6.35,P<0.01)。结论20多年来,临朐县恶性肿瘤死亡率逐渐上升,标化死亡率则无此趋势。胃癌一直是恶性肿瘤的首位死因,但其死亡构成比和标化死亡率不断下降。

Objective To investigate the trend of total cancer mortality in Linqu County Shandong Province from 1980 to 2002. Methods A retrospective survey on all causes of death in 1980 - 1982, 1990 - 1992 and 2000 - 2002 was conducted in Linqu County, a high risk area of gastric cancer in Northeast of China, respectively. Results The cancer death, was found the third leading cause of death in 1980 - 1982 in Linqu County, and the second to that of vascular disease in 2000 - 2002. The cancer mortality （standardized mortality） was 108.97/100 000 （111.48/100 000）, 132.38/100 000 （127.94/100 000） and 148.48/100 000 （105.53/100 000） in 1980 - 1982, 1990 - 1992 and 2000 - 2002, respectively. The trend of cancer mortality was significantly increased （Z = 13.42, P 〈 0.0001）. The added cancer-eliminated life expectancy in three periods was 2.46 years, 3.29 years and 3.76 years in male （F = 13.99, P 〈 0.0001）, and 1.67 years, 2.30 and 2.33 years in female （F = 13.61, P 〈 0.0001）, respectively. The standardized mortality of gastric cancer （percentage in all cancer death） was 44.93/100 000 （40.29%）, 41.37/100 000 （32.34%） and 27.73/100 000 （26.90%） in 1980 - 1982, 1990 - 1992 and 2000 - 2002, respectively. The trend of gastric cancer standardized mortality was significantly reduced （Z = 6.35, P 〈 0.01）. Conclusion The mortality of cancer in Linqu County has been increased from 1980 to 2002, but no such trend was found after adjusting ages. However, there was a decreased trend on standardized mortality of gastric cancer in the past 20 years.