山东省冬夏季气温异常的季风特征

Monsoon Characteristics of Air Temperature Abnormity in Winter and Summer in Shandong Province

利用山东省80个代表站1961～2003年月平均气温资料和同期NCAR／NCEP再分析资料，运用统计学方法，分析了季风背景下冬、夏季气温异常的年际、年代际变化和周期特征及变温的空间分布，并研究了东亚冬、夏季风对气温变化的影响。结果表明，冬夏季气温变化趋势明显不同，冬季增温趋势显著，夏季无明显增温趋势；2～6年的周期振荡在不同时期通过了0．05信度检验，小波分析2004年夏季气温不会偏高推断得到证实。冬、夏季气候具有明显的季风特征，季风与气温关系密切，即强（弱）冬季风山东易冷（暖）冬；强（弱）夏季风，易暖（冷）夏。冬季风比夏季风对同期气温作用更显著。季风的隔季相关性质对气温的变化有一定影响。

By using monthly air temperature data from eighty meteorological stations in Shandong Province and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on general circulation from 1961 to 2003, the features of the variation, linear trend, and spacial distribution of air temperature abnormality in winter and summer, as well as the relation between monsoon and air temperature, are analyzed. The results show that the changing trends are distinctly different between winter and summer. There is a remarkable increasing trend in winter, but there is no obvious change in summer. The 2 - 6 year oscillation periods are passed the 0.05 level test in different time periods. The wavelet analysis confirms that the summer temperature is lower in 2004. The effect of East Asia monsoon on temperature is significant. When the winter （summer） monsoon intensity strengthens （weakens）, the air temperature is lower （higher）. However, the effect of the winter monsoon on winter temperature is more obvious than that of summer monsoon on summer temperature. The correlation between summer and winter monsoon has positive influence on air temperature variation.