中国人口转变的风险前瞻

The Risk Prospect of Demograohic Transition in China

根据历史的经验和预测,中国人口转变既带来了人口红利,也带来了人口负债和人口风险。研究集中讨论了伴随人口转变而来的人口发展风险问题,概括了人口转变的六大特点以及人口发展的九大风险。独生子女家庭本质上是风险家庭,独生子女社会本质上是风险社会,一个人口学意义的风险社会正不依我们的意志为转移而在形成和发展中。1996年,中国成为人口转变意义上的风险社会,2016年后将演变为高风险社会。但和谐社会拒绝不安全的人口转变。成功的人口转变需要坚守计划生育的底线伦理和重建坚强有力的家庭结构。“城乡统开二胎”是值得尊重的“底线生育权”,是规避人口发展风险的重要政策选择。

Based on the historical experience and future prospect, as a result of rapid demographic transition in China, that is population bonus, population deficit and population risk. This paper focuses on the six characteristics of demographic transition, and nine kinds of risk which Chinese population is facing since Chinese demographic transition took place over the decades. The serious fact is that one-child family is the risky one, one-child family dominated society is the risky one also. China became the risky society in terms of demographic transition since 1996, and will develop into serious risky society since 2016. But the harmony society rejects the risky demographic transition. Successful demographic transition should take into account the lowest boundary line of family planning and reconstruct the stable family structure. Finally, the paper argues that ＂one couple, two children＂ is the boundary human right as well as the better policy choice in comparison to ＂one couple, one children＂ aiming to minimize all sorts of demographic transition risk.