全球经济失衡原因及其调整方式——基于美国贸易逆差与长期利率的因果研究

Causes of Global Economy Imbalance and Its Adjustment——A study based on the causality test of US trade deficit and long-term interest rate

全球经济失衡是当今世界经济增长的隐患,也是各界热议的话题。具体表现为美国持续增长的经常项目赤字和贸易逆差,以及相对应的以中国为代表的东亚国家的过度储蓄和巨大的贸易盈余与外汇储备。通过研究美国贸易逆差与长期利率的相互影响机制,得出结论:在失衡格局的调整中,美国提升利率、缩减财政赤字这一方式最为有效。然而最终的调整过程需要世界各国的共同参与,中国也应该适当调整经济,趋利避害。

Global economy imbalance is a hidden danger in the world economic growth. It is also a hot topic to discuss in the academic and political circles, which is embodied in the continuous growth of the U. S. current account deficit and trade deficit, in China and other East Asian countries＇ excessive deposit, huge trade surplus and foreign exchange reserve as well. Nowadays, scholars have divided into two groups in the issue of how to decrease this imbalance. Some U.S. official economists argued that the primary cause of global economy imbalance is due to the excessive deposit and foreign exchange reserve of East Asian countries. They suggest that these East Asian countries, especially China, adjust their economy first. Other foreign economists and some U.S. economists have an opposite viewpoint that the huge U.S. fiscal and trade deficits have caused the global economy imbalance and that adjusting the U. S. economy is a more effective way to change the imbalance. Using the Granger Causality test to study the U.S. trade deficit and the long-term interest rate mechanism, we find that the change of U.S. long-term interest rate could be the Granger cause of the trade deficit change. But on the contrary, trade deficit change does not have much influence on the long-term interest rate. This one-way influence has a certain time lag. The influence will be most obvious when the time lag is three months and will then weaken gradually. According to this result, we can draw the conclusion that the adjustment by the U. S. government to raise the interest rates and reduce the fiscal deficits will be most effective in decreasing the global economy imbalance. However, the final alignment procedure needs various countries＇ participation and the developing countries may have more pressure in the economic adjustment as the United States may not be so affirmative in adjusting its economy for its own benefit. In this condition, China must take appropriate adjustment in its economy, not only for the world but also for itself. Some policies should be established such as RMB appreciation, monetary cooperation in East Asia, etc.