基于灰色理论的长输管道风险分析

Risk analysis of oil and gas pipelines based on grey theory

针对长输管道传统风险分析精度不高的问题,提出利用灰色理论的灰色关联度来进行长输管道系统的定量风险分析。该方法对长输管道常见的故障模式进行风险优先排序,确定各个风险因素的相对重要性,具有原理简单、易于掌握、计算简便、排序明确、对数据分布类型及变量之间的相关类型无特殊要求等特点。实例计算表明该方法可行且有效,其结果为采取有效的运行维修策略,提高长输管道可靠性提供了有力依据。

Since the traditional risk analysis of oil and gas pipelines has low accuracy,the quantitative risk analysis of the oil and gas pipelines is put forward based on the grey correlativity of the grey theory.The risks of the common failure modes are sequenced preferentially by using the method to determine the relative importance of individual risk factor.The calculations from the case history indicate that the method is feasible and effective,and can serve as a powerful reference for taking effective strategies concerning operation and maintenance and improving the reliability of oil and gas pipelines.