城市轨道交通发展的定量解析方法

Methodology of Quantitative Analysis of Urban Rail Transit System Development

应用计量经济学原理,在城市轨道交通发展相关影响因素分析基础上,构建了城市轨道交通发展的宏观定量分析模型.该模型可以描述城市经济、投资,以及城市轨道交通路网扩展之间的互动关系.依据上海市过去10年的数据和确定的外生与虚拟变量值,应用该模型对上海市近期城市轨道交通发展情况进行了实例分析.

Based on the anaylsis of the related factors of the development of an urban rail transit （URT） system in a city, a macro model for quantitative analysis of the development of URT is conceived by using econometrics. The model can describe the mutual reactions between enlargement of URT network and city economics and investment in a city system. Based on the city data of the past 10 years and the values of exogenous and dummy variables confirmed, the model is applied for forecasting the URT development in Shanghai in the near future.