我国减缓碳排放的近期形势与远期趋势分析

Analysis on the Situation in the Near Future and the Trends in the Long Term with Regard of Mitigating Carbon Emissions in China

近3年来我国面临GDP能源强度呈上升趋势,能源消费及相应CO2排放增长对世界减缓碳排放的形势产生了更大影响的新的形势,从长远发展趋势看,我国当前由于工业特别是重化工业在国民经济结构中急剧增加引起的GDP能源强度阶跃性增长将随产业结构的稳定而平缓,并且随产业结构的优化和产业技术升级及高附加值产品比例提高而再度呈持续稳定下降的趋势。我国在现代化道路中与发达国家的历程相比,可以走更为节约能源和减少CO2排放的道路。但由于中国人口众多,和平发展的规模大、速度快,而且时间比发达国家滞后半个世纪以上,我国为实现现代化所必需的能源消费和CO2排放的增长会对全球的碳排放增长产生重大影响。这将使我国未来经济发展面临极为不利的外部环境。

This paper analyses the rising trend of the energy intensity of GDP in the last three years, and more impacts on the world carbon emissions mitigation of the growth of energy consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions in China, indicates that, in the long term, the leapfrogging growth due to the dramatic increase of proportion of current industries, especially heavy and chemical industries, in the national economy will calm along with the stabilization of industrial structure, and afresh continuously decrease along with the optimization of industry structure, upgrade of industry technology and proportional increase of high value-added products. Compared with that of developed countries, the modernization pathway of more energy reservation and more CO2 emissions mitigation can be taken in China. Meanwhile, due to the populous population, the great size and rapidness of peaceful growth up, and lagging behind developed countries for half a century, the growth of energy consumption and CO2 emissions necessary for the modernization in China will heavily influence the global carbon emissions. Hence, China will face very disadvantageous exterior surroundings in the future economic development.