中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004

Decomposition Model and Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions for China,1995-2004

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内很难改变,因此,碳排放不可避免地会出现一定幅度的增加。本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法(Logarithmicmean weight Divisia method,LMD),建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1995-2004年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响,结果显示经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率都呈倒“U”。这说明能源效率对抑制中国碳排放的作用在减弱,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用难以抵销由经济发展拉动的中国碳排放量增长。

Energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions. With the economy expanding, the sharply rising consumption of energy and the coal-focused energy structure are very difficult to change in short-term. Therefore the carbon emissions increase inevitably. A decomposition model of carbon emissions per capita for China is set up by adopting Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia（LMD） method based on the identity of carbon emissions. The model is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure, energy efficiency and economic development to carbon emissions per capita in China from 1995 to 2004. The results show that the contribution rate of economic development to carbon emissions per capita is exponential growth, however, the contribution rate of energy, structure and energy efficiency restraining to carbon emissions per capita is as the down ＂U＂. Some conclusions from above are that the restrain effect of energy efficiency is weakening; the coal-focused energy structure has not changed at all; and the restrain effect of energy structure and energy efficiency cannot offset the driving force of economic development to carbon emissions.