1997～2004年中国区域经济与火灾态势的关系分析

Relationship between local economic and fire situation in China during 1997～2004

中国区域经济发展存在较大差异,相应的火灾情况也各不相同,本文通过对1997～2004这8年期间的火灾数据的分析,探讨了火灾发展态势在不同地区的特征,并分析了典型地区的火灾和社会经济发展之间的关系。结果表明,当前情况下,随着经济的发展,我国多数地区的火灾发生态势先升高后降低,最后保持平稳；经济较发达的上海地区的火灾发生率已经越过了“最高峰”而趋于平稳好转的时期,此外,同样是经济较发达北京与天津两地的火灾发生率正处于“最高峰”时期,预计在未来几年内其火灾发展将趋于好转。

There is quite a lot of difference among the local economies in different provinces in China. The corresponding fire situations are also different. Through the analyses on the fire data in 1997-2004, the fire situations in different areas are investigated. The relationship between the fire situation and economy in representative areas is also analyzed. The results illustrate that currently, as the developing of economies, the fire situations in most areas of China become worse before getting better. The fire situation in Shanghai, whose economy is better, is getting better. In addition, for the Beijing and Tianjin, whose economies are also developed, the corresponding fire situations will get better in the following few years, too.