中国核心通胀率与产出缺口经验分析

The Core Inflation Rate and Output Gap in China:An Empirical Investigation

利用新菲利普斯曲线，本文设定包含通胀与产出的非观测成分模型估计中国的核心通胀率与产出缺口。通过卡尔曼滤波平滑推断程序，季度通胀和产出均被分解为互相独立的趋势成分和周期成分。估计结果表明，二十年来我国的潜在产出变化相对于传统HP滤波结果更为平滑，其近似呈线性增长。这意味着我国产出特征可通过简洁的趋势平稳过程来描述，而Nelsonand Plosser（1982）以来普遍采用的单位根过程未必是刻画我国产出的最优模型。核心通胀率推断还表明，1998--2002年间的通货紧缩并非如物价指数下降表现的一样严重。

Using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, I estimate the core inflation rate and the output gap in the post-reform period in a bivariate unobserved components model. The trend-cycle decompositions of quarterly output and inflation rate show that the growth rates of potential output are much steadier than the results of standard HP filter. The potential output increases almost linearly in the post-reform period. This implies that the gross output can be treated as a trend stationary process, and the difference stationary process widely adopted since Nelson and Plosser （1982） is not necessarily the best model for China＇s output ences on the core inflation rate also show that the deflation from 1998 to 2002 is not as as the result showed by price indices. Infer serious