河流水质参数估计的蒙特卡罗方法

Monte Carlo method for estimation on parameters of river water quality

考虑到水环境系统的不确定性,把河流水质观测数据和水质模型参数都作为随机变量来处理。采用贝叶斯方法计算出模型参数的后验概率密度函数,通过蒙特卡罗方法对其进行采样来获得参数的估计值。最后通过对一个实际河道的水质模型参数进行了估计,取得了较好的效果,可为进一步使用水质模型预测河流浓度分布提供依据。

Under the consideration of the uncertainty of the water environmental system, both the observed data of the river water quality and the parameters for the river water quality model are processed as the stochastic variables herein, Bayesian method is used to calculate the posterior probability density function of the parameters for the model, and then Monte Carlo method is used to sample the model for getting the estimated values of the parameters. At last, the estimation on the parameters for the water quality model of a real river is made and a better result is obtained as well; by which a good basis is to be made for the further prediction on the distribution of the concentration of the pollutants in rivers.