导弹系统贮存可靠性预测的数学模型

ON THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF PRESERVATION RELIABILITY FORECAST FOR MISSILE SYSTEM

本文研究了贮存环境对导弹系统贮存可靠性的影响问题。提出了合理的数学模型。在产品的固有贮存寿命为指数分布情况下，得到了在定期检测修复条件下，产品的贮存寿命分布。并以此为依据研究了贮存寿命数据的统计方法。作为一个实例分析，本文对于导弹系统的某部件给出了实用的贮存可靠度预测模型。所用估计方法简单易行，有较强的实用性。

This paper studies the problem of influence of environment stress on preservation reliability of the missile system. The authors present a reasonablely mathematical model. In the case of that the inherent preservation life of the system has an exponent distribution, the authors obtain the preservation life distribution of the system with the periodical maintenance. Based on the distribution, the paper deals with the statistical analysis method of the preservation life data. The method presented in the paper is simple, convenient and practicable. The numerical conclusions are also shown that the forecast model has a good forecast precision.