摘要
本文将从宏观经济的角度对中国民航运输需求高速增长的原因作出定性的分析并对我国民航运输需求在“九五”期间内的发展水平和发展速度作出定量的预测。
This article,in the first place,made a thorough qualitative analysis of the causes that bring about the great increase of chinses civil aviation demand from the angle of macro—economics.In the second place,based on the historical statistical data,by means of linear regression analytical method in econometrics,the article also made a lot of quantitative study and forecast of both the total air transport traffic and the air transport traffic performed on domestic routes,international routes and regional routes of chinese civil aviation,giving a better answer to the important question at the level of which chinese civil aviation demand will arrive and at which speed the demand will increase in each year of“the Ninth Five—Year”.The solution of this problem will have certain referential significance to the civil aviation administrative authorities and airlines.
