基于灰色组合模型的发动机研制费用估算研究

Study on the Estimation of the Engine Development Cost Based on the Gray combined Model

参数估算法作为LCC的一种估算方法主要应用于武器装备研制费用的估算.由于样本数据较少,且变量之间的线性相关程度较高,如果使用传统的多元线性回归方程法估算,则会严重降低估计结果的有效性.为解决这一问题,研究了灰色组合模型在发动机研制费用估算中的应用.通过实例计算表明,本方法用较少的样本可以得到较高的估算精度.

Parametric Cost Estimating is a method of analyzing the Life Cycle Cost, which is widely used in estimating the Cost of Development in armament. During the development of armament, fewer sample data and the high correlation among the variables make it difficult to estimate the development cost. This paper suggests Gray combined Model should be used in estimating the Engine Development Cost so as to solve the problem mentioned above. The examples indicate that a higher accuracy can be obtained with fewer samples by this method.