近106a来登陆福建台风的统计分析

Statistically analyse on the typhoons landed on Fujian in the last 106 years

本文对近106a（1900～2005年）来登陆福建的台风进行了统计分析．登陆福建的台风每年平均1．66个，均方差1．27个．通过滑动平均和小波变换分析，表明近106a来登陆福建台风数总体呈减少趋势，年登陆台风数的变化具有准16a的年代际周期，1936年前存在着准8a的年际周期，1936年后存在着5～8a的年际周期．登陆时段为6月16日至10月14日，集中于7～9月，以8月最多．登陆台风有多种类型，路径复杂多样．台风造成的风、雨、潮灾害十分严重．台风影响期间，最大平均风速达60m／s，最大阵风达70m／s；最大过程雨量大于1000mm；最大雨强30min雨量达147mm；暴潮增水最高达2．52m．

This paper statistically analyse the typhoons landing on Fujian in the last 106 years. The average number of typhoons landed on Fujian is 1.66 per year,with standard deviation of 1.27. Analysed by slip average and wavelet transform, the number of landed typhoons per year have the period of 16 years,the period of 8 years before 1936 and the period of 5 -8 years after 1936. The date of the typhoons landing on Fujian ranged between June 16th and October 14th, and concentrated between July and September, mostly in August. The typhoons landing on Fujian may be divided into many types with complex and multiform paths. They always bring strong wind, heavy rain and high tide, and make great disaster. The max average wind speed is 60m/s and the max gust is 70m/s,the max precipitation is over 1 000mm, the strong rain is 147mm in 30 minutes, the highest storm tide is 2.52m during the typhoons.