经常账户的失衡:对国际融资悖论的跨时均衡分析

The Studies of the Imbalances of Current Accounts by the Intertemporal Equilibrium Approaches

本文借助跨时均衡的分析框架,从动态的视角对经常账户失衡的产生根源、福利后果以及调节机制进行经济学意义上的诠释。本文认为,全球经常账户失衡是各国跨时均衡机制作用的结果,该机制也可用来解释当前的“长期利率之谜”。跨时均衡的市场机制对经常账户具有调节作用,其前提条件是经常账户顺差国的生产率持续快于逆差国。但过分依赖市场机制来调整失衡将是相当缓慢且充满风险的,各国的结构性调整政策势在必行。自由贸易对失衡的自动调节具有重要作用。然而,随着多哈回合谈判的搁浅,目前跨时均衡的市场机制正受到贸易保护主义抬头的威胁。我们必须积极应对经常项目顺差带来的一系列问题,努力防范“贫困化增长”。

The imbalance of the global economy is a hot topic today. But most of the discussions only refer to the static analysis. In this paper, we study the factors that affect consumptions and investments, then discuss the change of current accounts using Obstfeld-Rogoff＇s intertemporal framework. Finally we combine the dynamic models with the realities and propose some suggestions.