重归平衡需要的远不止人民币升值

RMB appreciation alone cannot bring China＇s trade balance into equilibrium

中国的贸易可以看成是由两部分组成，一个是实际贸易，另外一个是加工贸易。二者规模相当，区别在于中国的“实际”贸易已经连续数年处于逆差，而加工贸易顺差则逐年增长。也就是说，中国的贸易顺差主要来源于加工贸易顺差。在人民币升值促使制造业向境外转移的过程非常缓慢的情况下，短期内，升值对解决中国贸易失衡的作用非常有限。中国贸易重归平衡需要的远不止人民币升值。

Trade in China consists of two parts： real trade and processing trade, both of which are comparable in terms of scale. The key difference lies in the fact that China＇s real trade remains in deficit for successive years in contrast with the increasingly growing surplus in processing trade. China＇s trade surplus is largely attributable to the processing trade surplus. Since it takes much time for RMB appreciation to prompt overseas transfer of manufacturing, in the short run, RMB appreciation will play a very limited role in resolving China＇s trade imbalance. In summary, RMB appreciation alone cannot bring China＇s trade imbalance back to equilibrium.