摘要
各种新技术或产品的扩散往往是相互联系的,附随扩散现象就是其中一种重要的情况,但是反映这种附随关系的扩散模型却很少被提及。论文在传统Bass模型基础上,进行了扩展,构建了体现产品之间附随扩散关系的附随扩散模型,并以移动用户与移动上网用户的附随扩散关系为例进行实证研究,将结果与传统Bass模型、Logistic模型的拟合结果进行了对比,得出了附随扩散模型拟和效果更好的结论。
A diffusion of adoption for a new product or technology is interrelated to another sometimes, and the contingent diffusion for a new product is one kind of the diffusions. But a model for the products of contingent diffusion is seldom noticed by scholars. A contingent diffusion model is formulated after summarizing the idea of Bass model and Peterson model in this paper. And then the contingent diffusion model is applied to the case where two wireless products’diffusion are contingent. The contingent diffusion model parameters are estimated with genetic algorithms. In comparison with bass model and logistic model, this contingent diffusion model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance. Finally, the paper draws a conclusion that the contingent diffusion model is superior to the Bass model for applying a contingent diffusion product.
出处
《管理评论》
2006年第10期18-22,17,共6页
Management Review
