对未来陕西省可能发生的最大地震震级的探讨

Discussion on the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquake possibly Occurred in Shanxi Province in the Future

以古登堡—李希特的震级—频度关系式(logN=a-bM)为基本公式,导出计算不同震级复发周期及未来一定时间内可能发生的最大地震的震级公式。利用陕西省丰富完整的历史地震资料,对陕西未来地震的最大震级及中长期地震趋势进行了初步探讨。

According to the magnitude-frequency formula, we educed the computing formula for estimatingthe recurrence period of earthquake with different magnitude and the maximum magnitude of earthquake possibly occurred in the coming future in this paper. Furthermore, the maximum earthquake magnitude in the future and the medium-long term seismic trend in Shaanxi province are preliminarily studied by using the ample historical earthquake data.