1998 和 2003 年上海市夏季人群死亡分析

Heat Waves and Related Mortality in Shanghai in 1998 and 2003

目的探索上海夏季全人群死亡的影响因素。方法收集上海1998、2003年6月15日—9月15日逐日全人群死亡资料及同期气象资料、逐日污染物浓度资料、社会统计资料进行分析。结果除2003年8月的平均最高气温低于1998年同期外,2003年其他月平均最高气温、热日天数、最长热日持续时间和极端最高温度均高于1998年,但2003年夏季日平均死亡数和热日及非热日平均死亡数均低于1998年。经多元逐步回归分析,1998、2003年夏季高温日死亡与气象关系的回归方程的R2分别为0.7696和0.5603,均有统计学意义(P<0.001)。1998年夏季死亡数与热日连续天数、热浪出现的时间有关(均P<0.001);2003年夏季死亡数与热日连续天数、热浪出现时间、日最高气温有关(均P<0.05)。上海人口老龄化趋势在继续,65岁以上的老龄人口比例从1998年的12.32%增加到2003年的14.79%,造成易感人群增加;而医疗条件、收入水平和居民生活条件等均有不同程度的提高。结论高温是夏季死亡增加的主要影响因素,生活条件的改善,如空调的使用、居住条件的改善,可能有助于降低人群易感程度,减少死亡。

Objective To seek out the factors that influenced the mortality of population due to heat wave in Shanghai in summer（15 June-15 September）. Methods Daily data of mortality of all causes, meteorological and air pollution in Shanghai in 1998 and 2003 were collected. Multivariate analysis was employed to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season and air pollution concentrations. Results The heat wave in 1998 was more severe and caused a higher mortality than that in 2003. In 1998 heat wave, the heat wave duration,timing within the summer season were significantly associated with the daily number of deaths,while in 2003, besides the above two factors the daily maximum temperature also played an important role. Air pollution level slightly increased in heat wave and some factors such as air conditioner number, living space and urban greenbelt area could he used to explain the distinctive difference of heat related mortality between 1998 and 2003. Conclusion High temperature is the crucial factor for the high mortality of population due to heat wave in Shanghai in summer （15 June-15 September） in 1998 and 2003. Using air condition and enlarging living space will help to decrease the mortality.