抚顺城区大气悬浮颗粒物污染与心脑血管疾病死亡率的定量分析

Air Total Suspended Particle and Cerebral-Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Urban Residents in Fushun City

目的定量分析抚顺城区大气总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)对心脑血管疾病死亡率的影响。方法采用生态学方法,分析1999—2003年抚顺市大气中TSP浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡率的相关关系。结果在控制了时间、气象等因素后,当日TSP浓度每增加50μg/m3,男性组、老年男性组心脑血管疾病死亡率增加的OR值分别为1.01542和1.02240;滞后4日TSP浓度每增加50μg/m3,总人群、男性组和老年男性组心脑血管疾病死亡率增加的OR值分别为1.00826、1.01627和1.01665。结论抚顺市区大气TSP污染可能与当地居民心脑血管疾病死亡率增加有关。

Objective To assess the relationship between the concentration of total suspended particle （TSP） and cerebralcardiovascular disease mortality of urban residents in Fushun city, China. Methods The data of cerebral-cardiovascular disease mortality and TSP concentration from 1999 to 2003 in Fushun city were collected. The association between TSP concentrations and the mortality of cerebral-cardiovascular diseases was analyzed using Poisson regression model adjusted for seasons, long-term patterns and meteorological variations using an ecological parametric method. Results As the concentration of TSP increased by 50 μg/m^3, OR of cerebral-cardiovascular disease mortality increase was 1.015 42 （95%CI= 1.000 18-1.030 89） in the male group and 1.022 40 （95%CI=1.004 87-1.040 23） in the aged male group respectively, as 4-days lag TSP concentration increased by 50 μg/m^3, OR of cerebral-cardiovascular disease mortality increase was 1.008 26 （95%CI=1.000 57-1.016 02） in the whole people, 1.016 27 （95%CI=1.006 71-1.025 93） in the male group and 1.016 65 （95%CI=1.005 25-1.028 19） in the aged male group respectively. Conclusion Air pollution by TSP is considered as a risk factor for the increase of cerebral-cardiovascular disease mortality in Fushun city, China.