贸易何以促成和平:以中美关系为例

How Trade Promotes Peace:A Case Study of Sino-U.S.Relations

贸易与和平的关系是一个古老的问题。自由主义者认为贸易能够推动两国间的政治合作,是两国政治关系的“黏合剂”或是“压舱石”,并且成为两国间维持和平的力量。而贸易作为推动国家间经济相互依存的主要力量,显然不能无条件地带来和平。作者从国家决策的路径入手,引入了“对贸易收益的判断”这一变量,认为只有在战争收益接近于零,并且国家对贸易收益的判断为正时,贸易水平的增加才能推动国家间的和平。作者运用上述理论框架,对中美关系中的经贸因素进行分析后得出的结论是:20世纪90年代中期以后,以美国放弃将贸易最惠国待遇问题与人权挂钩这一事件为标志,美国对中美贸易收益的判断有了积极的、重要的转变,直到此时贸易才可以成为两国政治关系的“黏合剂”。

How does trade affect bilateral relations? Liberals argue that trade can help foster bilateral political cooperation,and as the “binder” or “ballistic” of bilateral political relations,it is a force for peace.However,given the history of international relations,obviously trade cannot bring peace unconditionally.From the perspective of the decision-making process,the author introduces a new variable——“judgment on trade gains”——and argues that only when gains from war amount to zero and the decision makers have a positive judgment about the benefits they will gain from trade exchanges will trade promote peace as the trade level increases.Using this theoretical framework,the author presents a case study of Sino-U.S.relations and concludes that not until the U.S.government abandoned the links between MFN and the human rights issue in the 1990s and began to have a positive judgment about its benefits from trade with China was it possible for trade to serve as a binder between the two countries.