基于不确定型电力电量平衡的电网企业购电成本分析

Electricity Purchasing Cost Calculation Based on Uncertain Analysis of Power Supply-Demand Balancing for Power Grid Corporation

购电成本分析是电网企业的重要决策手段,而传统的购电成本分析一般是基于简单的确定型电力电量平衡,忽略了电力系统生产运行过程中所蕴涵的不确定性,使得分析结果无法提供全面的有价值的参考。文中首先根据模糊性及随机性的概念,利用序列运算理论从不同的角度对电力供需平衡中的不确定性进行描述,提出了不确定型电力电量平衡的新理念,并建立了其计算方法。由此对电网企业的购电成本进行分析,详细描述了购电成本分析的思想、方法和流程,并对电网企业的购电成本风险进行了评估。最后结合广西电网实际数据,对所提出的方法进行了实例说明以及有效性检验。

Electricity purchasing cost calculation is an important decision-making measure of power grid corporation. Normally traditional methods of electricity purchasing cost calculation are on the basis of certain power supply-demand balancing and ignore the uncertainty implied in the operation of power system, thus the analysis results of traditional methods cannot offer overall and valuable references, According to the concepts of fuzziness and randomness the authors describe the uncertainty within power supply-demand balancing from various aspects by use of sequence operation theory, propose new idea of uncertain power supply-demand balancing and establish calculation method for it. Herefrom the electricity purchasing cost of power grid corporation is analyzed, the thinking, method and process of analysis on electricity purchasing cost are described in detail as well as the risk in electricity purchasing cost of power grid corporation is assessed. Finally, combining with actual data of Guangxi power grid the proposed method is illustrated and its effectiveness is verified.