气候变暖对宁夏引黄灌区水稻生产的影响

Impact of Climate Warming on Rice Yield in Irrigation Area of Ningxia

对宁夏引黄灌区10个测站1961-2004年水稻生长发育期5～9月的气温进行分析，结果表明，宁夏引黄灌区水稻生长期的气候明显变暖。t检验表明，5～9月日平均气温的突变发生在1993年，突变后的气温比突变前升高了0．8℃。在水稻生长发育各阶段，气温都有所升高，但没有超过水稻生长发育的适宜温度范围。引黄灌区水稻的温度敏感系数在5月、7～9月上旬为正值，尤其在7月下旬至8月中旬最大，此阶段气候变暖对水稻生产有利，6月、9月中下旬为负值，气候变暖对水稻生产有不利影响。气候变暖为高产品种的引进创造了条件，降低了水稻对温度变化的敏感性，使水稻单产变率减小，保证了水稻的高产稳产。就宁夏引黄灌区而言，气候变暖对水稻单产的贡献为2．51％。

The result of analyzing the 10 stations＇ temperature during rice growing season （May to September） in irrigation area of Ningxia showed that the temperature increased obviously from 1961 to 2004. T-test indicted that the temperature leap occurred in 1993, the temperature after 1993 was 0.8℃ higher than that before 1993. In period of rice growing season, the temperature increased, but it didn＇t exceed the fitting extent. The sensitive index of rice yield to temperature in May, July and August was positive, especially from the last ten days of July to the middle ten days of August, the climate warming was favorable to rice. The sensitive index in June, the last twenty days of September was negative, the climate warming was disadvantageous. The climate warming brought the good condition for high yield species breeding, decreased the sensitivity of rice to temperature change and the variety of unit rice yield. In irrigation area of Ningxia, the contribution of climate warming to rice yield was 2.51%