基于STIRPAT模型分析中国环境压力的时间差异——以1952—2003年能源消费为例

Analysis on Temporal Variation of Environmental Impact Based on STIRPAT Model——A Case Study of Energy Consumption of China

人类活动已经显著地改变了全球环境,定量分析人类活动对环境的影响,是当前可持续发展研究的热点之一。分别采用能源消费总量和能源消费产生的污染作为环境压力的衡量指标,利用STIRPAT模型,以1952—2003年中国能源消费总量时间序列数据为例,分析人口数量、富裕度、能源强度和能源消费的选择行为等人类驱动力对环境压力的影响。结果表明:人口数量或能源强度发生1%的变化,将分别引起环境压力相应发生1.992%或0.777%的变化;随着富裕度的增加,富裕度对环境压力的弹性系数逐渐增加。在观测数据范围内,分析结果不支持环境Kuznets曲线的观点。在不同时期,人类驱动力对环境压力的作用存在明显的差异,人口数量和富裕度的增加对环境压力产生正效应;而能源强度的波动变化使得其对环境压力的作用有正效应,也有负效应。选择清洁能源的消费行为,有利于抑制以能源消费产生的污染为衡量指标的环境压力的上升。各种人类驱动力的净效应决定环境压力总体变化趋势。

Human activities have dramatically altered the global environment,quantitative analysis on the impacts of human activities on environment is one of the highlights in the research field of sustainable development.The total energy consumption and the pollutions from energy consumption processes were taken as the indexes of two different kinds of environmental impacts.Utilizing the STIRPAT model,taking total energy consumption time-series data of China from 1952 to 2003 as an example,this paper analyzed the effect by the anthropogenic driving forces on environmental impacts,including total population,affluence,energy intensity and chosen behavior of energy consumption.The result showed that a 1% change in total population or energy intensity results in a 1.992% or 0.777% change,respectively.With the growth of affluence, the coefficient of affluence elasticity of impact will increase.So,in this empirical study,the overall findings do not support the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis.In different decades,the effects of the anthropogenic driving forces vary dramatically.The growth of total population and affluence has positive effect on environmental impacts;however,the fluctuation of energy intensity has positive or negative effect on environmental impacts in different decades.The behavior of clean energy consumption is helpful to control the environmental impacts which takes the pollution from energy consumption processes as an index.The change of environmental impacts was determined by the net effect of all kinds of anthropogenic driving forces.