中国国际收支双顺差现象研究:对中国外汇储备突破万亿美元的理论思考

Twin Surplus in China:Reflections on China's One Trillion Dollar Foreign Exchange Reserves

本文研究中国国际收支双顺差现象的特征含义、发生根源及其与汇率失衡的关系。首先以国际收支结构变动和外汇储备增长作为观察背景,从经济学理论和国际经验角度考察中国双顺差现象的特征含义。然后从加工贸易与外商直接投资组合效应角度分析产生双顺差现象的直接原因,从产品内分工时代条件与中国经济开放成长道路阶段性特点角度考察其深层根源。最后探讨双顺差与人民币汇率变动关系,着重分析近年人民币汇率低估对双顺差规模激增的影响。

This paper examines the evolution,characteristics and causes of the“twin surplus”phenomenon in China. Twin surplus serve a crucial factor for the long run changes in the RMB real exchange rate.We explain the im- balances in China's balance of payment and associated disequilibrium for the RMB real exchange rate in 1998 -2005.We also briefly comment on a future prospects in which the emerging excessive scale of foreign ex- change reserves in China introduce the growing pressure to reduce the size of foreign exchange reserves and ap- preciate the RMB real exchange rate in the coming future.