科索沃的历史、现状及未来走向

Kosovo's History,Present Situation and Future

黑山共和国的独立使科索沃问题再次成为国际社会关注的焦点。虽然塞尔维亚声称不放弃对科索沃的主权,国际上也有反对科索沃独立的声音,但舆论普遍认为未来一年内科索沃实现独立将不可避免。本文对科索沃问题的历史进行了简要回顾,对科索沃战后局势和现状进行了分析,认为科索沃既成现实的阿、塞南北分治使科索沃分裂、科塞重划边境的可能性增大,国际社会多年来坚持的“不以民族居住的自然边界重新划定国界”的巴尔干政策面临严重挑战。

After the independence of the Republic of Montenegro, the Kosovo issue once again becomes the focus of international concern. In spite of Serbia's assertion of not giving up its sovereignty over Kosovo and some international voices against Kosovo's independence, the!realization of Kosovo's independence within the coming year is deemed as unavoidable. The paper recalls briefly the history of Kosovo crisis, analyses Kosovo's present situation and concludes with the opinion that the possibility of Kosovo's independence accompanied with partition has increased due to the de facto control of northern Kosovo by Serbia. The policy of “not resetting the border according to the natural ethnic line” insisted for many years by the international community is facing severe challenge.