GM(1,1)与GM(2,1)模型在基坑工程预测中的应用

Application of gray-method models G(1,1) and G(1,2) forecasting of pit excavation engineering

灰色系统理论已经在岩土工程领域有广泛的应用。本文把灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型和GM(2,1)模型应用到基坑工程中,并编制了预测计算程序GYC1.0用于锚杆拉力、地面沉降和地面水平位移预测计算。工程实践说明:GM(1,1)模型比GM(2,1)模型更可靠,稳定性高,但是GM(1,1)模型短期预测时效果良好,中期预测时效果偏差较大,长期预测则要慎重。

The GM （1,1） model and GM （2,1） model of the gray system theory were applied in the deep foundation pits, and a program of the gray system theory deformation forecast, named GYC1.0 was also developed. The GYC1.0 could be used for the anchor force, vertical settlement and horizontal displacement forecasting in the deep foundation pits. The construction practices proved that the GM（1,1） model is superiority to the GM （2,1） model for its stability and the accuracy and the forecasting results are satisfactory while forecasting the short-time value, but the long-time forecasting values are circumspect sometimes, for the forecasting deflection become larger in the long-time forecasting.