小江流域土地利用变化及其趋势分析

Analysis of Land Use Change and its Changing Trend in Xiaojiang Basin

运用遥感和地理信息系统技术，提取了小江流域1987，1995年和2000年土地利用空间数据，分析了1987～2000年间小江流域土地利用类型变化的幅度、速度以及类型之间相互转移，并应用马尔柯夫概率模型对小江流域2015年土地利用格局进行了预测。结果表明：13年来小江流域耕地、林地以及城乡工矿用地面积均显著增加，其中耕地增加最为显著，由1987年的345．1km^2增加到2000年的398．7km^2。小江流域土地利用变化速度很快，年均变化速度达0．49％；对单一土地利用类型来说，城乡工矿用地的年均变化速度最大，年变化率达3．52％，其次为耕地和水域。增加的耕地主要来自草地、林地和水域；林地中除部分转化为耕地外，由12．64％的林地退化成草地；草地和未利用地基本保持不变。到2015年，小江流域耕地、林地、水域和城乡工矿用地面积和比例将会增加，草地和未利用地面积和比例将会下降。

Based on Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, it acquired land-use datum of Xiaojiang Basin in 1987, 1995 and 2000. It presented land use change during 1987-2000, such as land-use change range and rate, conversion among land-use types and development trend of land-use pattern in 2015 by using Markov Probability Model. The studying findings were as following： farmland, woodland, town and resident land increased quickly from 1987 to 2000, especially farmland; farmland increased from 345.1 km^2 in 1987 to 398.7 km^2 in 2000. The land use change rate was rapid and the annual change rate reached to 0.49%. For each land-use type, the change rate of town and resident land was largest among all land-use types, and it was 3.52% ; and next were farmland and water land. The increased farmland mainly came from woodland, grassland and water land; and some woodland was degenerated to grassland, accounting for 12.64%, except for woodland converting to farmland. Grassland and barren land changed a little. By 2015, area and proportion of farmland, woodland, water land, town and resident land will increase, and the area and proportion of grassland and barren land will decrease.