摘要
运用遥感和地理信息系统技术,提取了小江流域1987,1995年和2000年土地利用空间数据,分析了1987~2000年间小江流域土地利用类型变化的幅度、速度以及类型之间相互转移,并应用马尔柯夫概率模型对小江流域2015年土地利用格局进行了预测。结果表明:13年来小江流域耕地、林地以及城乡工矿用地面积均显著增加,其中耕地增加最为显著,由1987年的345.1km^2增加到2000年的398.7km^2。小江流域土地利用变化速度很快,年均变化速度达0.49%;对单一土地利用类型来说,城乡工矿用地的年均变化速度最大,年变化率达3.52%,其次为耕地和水域。增加的耕地主要来自草地、林地和水域;林地中除部分转化为耕地外,由12.64%的林地退化成草地;草地和未利用地基本保持不变。到2015年,小江流域耕地、林地、水域和城乡工矿用地面积和比例将会增加,草地和未利用地面积和比例将会下降。
Based on Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, it acquired land-use datum of Xiaojiang Basin in 1987, 1995 and 2000. It presented land use change during 1987-2000, such as land-use change range and rate, conversion among land-use types and development trend of land-use pattern in 2015 by using Markov Probability Model. The studying findings were as following: farmland, woodland, town and resident land increased quickly from 1987 to 2000, especially farmland; farmland increased from 345.1 km^2 in 1987 to 398.7 km^2 in 2000. The land use change rate was rapid and the annual change rate reached to 0.49%. For each land-use type, the change rate of town and resident land was largest among all land-use types, and it was 3.52% ; and next were farmland and water land. The increased farmland mainly came from woodland, grassland and water land; and some woodland was degenerated to grassland, accounting for 12.64%, except for woodland converting to farmland. Grassland and barren land changed a little. By 2015, area and proportion of farmland, woodland, water land, town and resident land will increase, and the area and proportion of grassland and barren land will decrease.
出处
《水土保持学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期154-157,共4页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
"973"国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2003CB415202)
关键词
小江流域
土地利用变化
转移矩阵
变化趋势
Xiaojiang Basin
land use change
transition matrix
changing trend