吉林省达乌尔黄鼠密度的前瞻性预测

Prospective forecast of densities of Spermophilus dauricus in Jilin Province

目的了解鼠疫主要宿主密度的变化规律。方法利用时间序列分析中的自回归模型,建立吉林省各鼠疫监测县预测黄鼠密度的数学模型,预测吉林省各鼠疫监测县2005-2007年黄鼠密度。结果成功地建立了12个前瞻性预测黄鼠密度的数学模型,预测结果显示,2005、2006、2007年,每年4月份吉林省黄鼠密度分别在0．0369～0．9507、0．0682～0．9298、0．0581～0．9214只／hm2。结论使用自回归模型,可以前瞻性预测鼠疫主要宿主密度的变化。

Objective To study the changes of densities of plague main reservoir. Methods Mathematics models forecasting densities of Spermophilus were established using autoregressive models in time-sequence analysis survey in counties surveyed for plague in Jilin Province. The densities of Spermophilus were forecasted in 2005 to 2007 those counties of Jilin Province. Results 12 models built prospectively forecasted the densities of Spermophilus in the range of 0.0369 - 0.9507, 0.0682 - 0.9298 and 0.0581 - 0.9214/hm^2 respectively in the April from 2005 to 2007 at 4 months. Conclusion Autoregressive models can prospectively forecast changes of densities of plague main reservoir.