中部地区区域经济发展的极化分析

ANALYSIS OF POLARIZATION IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL REGION OF CHINA

以经济增长极理论为基础,建立相应指标评价体系,采用全局主成分分析方法,对中部地区区域经济发展的极化机制和空间极化差异进行分析。研究显示:中部地区经济发展的极化机制在于经济发展成果、经济投入和城市化发展,它们对区域经济极化贡献程度依次降低,进一步的评价指标变化度揭示,不同指标对关键因子变动的贡献也不一样,由此得出10项重点控制指标;通过对前两个全局主成分投影的组合分析,发现中部省份的经济投入与经济产出效果差,着力提高投入产出效率是该地区极化系统得以完善的根本。进一步的综合变动轨迹分析显示,中部地区经济极化程度不强,但经济极化强度随时间正逐步加强,因此,加大对极化程度较强的湖北、湖南和江西的扶持有助于该区极化系统的完善。

On the basis of growth polar theory, an evaluation system was built for understanding mechanisms and spatial discrepancies of economic polarization in central China during the period from 2001 to 2005 by means of generalized principal component analysis. It was shown that the factor of economic development production, factor of economic investment and factor of urbanization are key momentums which lead the polarization of economy in the central region of China, but their contribution to the polarization ranged from a high level to a low level. Further analysis on the variation of evaluation system revealed that the contribution rates of different indicators varied, and there were 10 iridicators which were key-controlled variables. The analysis of projective combination of the two components revealed a weak effect of economic investment on economic production; so the efficiency of economic production should be heightened. Synthetic analysis on alterations revealed that polarization in the central region was not significant, but its degree became gradually intensified. Therefore, to improve polarization system, some provinces such as Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi with a higher polarization degree in the region should be given much more support.