美国的中东民主化战略评析

Analysis on US's Strategy of Democratization in the Middle East

近几年来,美国以根除恐怖主义的名义在中东实行了“中东民主化战略”。美国的中东民主化战略的确取得了一定成果。但是,美国提出的目标并未都实现,甚至出现了一些事与愿违的结果。美国的中东民主化战略遭遇尴尬局面的主要原因,在于美国对于中东国家民众的价值取向、中东国家内部政治力量对比、自身在中东民众心中的可信度及民主化对于消除恐怖主义的意义等问题的认识有失误。美国下一步的选择很可能是放缓中东民主化战略的步伐,再次依靠世俗当政者、压制宗教势力。但是,美国的这种政策调整将进一步加剧中东乃至世界各国民众对美国的不信任,进而在一定程度上削弱其对世界的影响力。

US＇s Strategy of Democratization in the Middle East aiming to eliminate terrorism has been enforced for several years. Though US＇s strategy has got some achievements, some objectives of the strategy has not been realized. However, some consequences of the strategy are opposed to US＇s original objectives. The causes for why US＇s strategy is in a dilemma are the miscalculations of value orientations of people in the Middle Eastern countries, the structure of political pewers in the Middle Eastern countries, the credibility of US with people in the Middle Eastern countries and the linkage between democratization and eliminating terrorism. The adaptation of US＇s policy may be slowing down the step of democratization and reckoning on the secular authority to restrain the Islamist. But the adaptation will reduce the credibility of US with people in the Middle Eastern countries and other countries and weaken the US＇s affection on the world.