管理浮动汇率制下的动态干预边界——基于我国1994～2005年数据的测算

On the Alterable Intervening Verge in the Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime

本文基于从1994年1季度到2005年2季度的数据,运用一个多方程结构模型,对2005年3季度后的人民币均衡汇率和干预边界进行了测算。结果显示,2005年7月以后人民币仍存在一定的升值动力,期间货币当局的干预倾向与以前相比并没有发生实质性变化,过于频繁的干预并不利于汇率的长远稳定。从而指出管理浮动汇率制下的汇市干预必须以综合考虑基本经济因素和干预倾向而准确测算现实均衡汇率为基础,动态地把握干预边界,以使市场汇率不过分偏离均衡汇率,应逐渐降低干预频率,增大汇率的基本经济因素弹性,根据市场汇率波动情况灵活地进行双向干预操作。

Based on the quarterly data covering Q1/1994～Q2/2005 and using a multi-equation structural model, this paper forecasts the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB and the intervening verge since 3/2005. The outcome reveals that there was still appreciating momentum on RMB and no substantial variation on monetary authority＇s intervening strategy after July 2005, and excessive intervention does not good to long-term exchange rate stability. The authors hold that the monetary authority should change the intervening verge from time to time based on accurate calculation of realistic equilibrium exchange rate, by taking economic fundamentals and intervening strategy into account. Second, the monetary authority should decrease the frequency of intervention to increase the dasticity of exchange rate to fundamentals. Third, the monetary authority should intervene in both ways neatly according to the fluctuation of market exchange rate.