渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测

Forecasting the oil reserves and increment trend of production rate in Bo hai Bay Basin

渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性,石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性,用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程,结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果,分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示,2005—2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期,2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰,之后处于下降趋势。实践证明,利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。

Discovery of the oil reserves in Bohai Bay Basin is a gradual, step by step and long term process. Single Hubbert cycle is hard to forecast the trend of production rate for certain fluctuation of the incremental production rate. With the analysis of the exploration and exploitation history, as well as the results of latest resource assessment in Bohai Bay Basin, four and three Hubbert cycles are used separately to match the future oil reserves and incremental production curves. The forecasted results are that the oil reserves will be discovered more in the Bohai Bay Basin between 2005 and 2015,and the production is to arrive at its peak in 2015. The multi-cyclic Hubbert model works well for the forecasting the multi-peak reserves and production rate.