中国纺织品出口地理结构与出口不稳定性分析

An Analysis of Instability of China's Textile Export

以地理集中化指标、出口多样化指数等为研究变量,实证分析中国纺织品出口地理结构与其出口不稳定性的相互关系,结果显示：中国纺织品出口主要集中在亚洲地区,亚洲市场的波动决定了中国纺织品出口不稳定性的大部分,而来自亚洲市场的冲击可由其他几大洲市场部分地平抑；不断扩大的欧美市场由于其自身的不稳定性及波动的趋势相关性,对亚洲市场的平抑作用十分有限；通过出口地理结构调整,开拓新的市场尤其是非洲市场可以降低总体出口的不稳定性。

This paper uses a geographic concentration index and export diversification index to make an empirical analysis of the relationship between geographical concentration and exporting instability of China＇s textile. The analytical conclusion indicates that the exporting instability of China＇s textile is mostly caused by fluctuations of the Asian market since China＇s export of textile concentrates on the Asian region. The instability can be partly counteracted by exporting to other continents. Due to a high correlation of fluctuating trends and their own instability, the stabilizing function of expanding European and American markets is limited. However, the exporting instability will fall gready through adjusting the export geographic structure and developing new market, especially the African market.