近50年来喀什噶尔河流域气温、降水及径流的变化趋势

Change Trends of Temperature,Precipitation and Runoff Volume in the Kaxgar River Basin since Recent 50 years

应用喀什噶尔河流域内7个气象站、3个水文站的观测资料,分析了全流域、平原区和帕米尔高原的气温、降水以及出山口控制站年径流量的变化特征。结果显示:①从20世纪90年代开始,喀什噶尔河全流域以及平原区和帕米尔高原的年以及冬、秋季明显增暖,近5年春季迅速增温。从90年代起,全流域与高原区的年降水量明显增加,近5年平原区也明显增加;自90年代起全流域的春季、夏季降水明显增加,而近5年秋、冬季增湿迅速;近5年平原区的秋、春季以及冬季降水增加明显,高原区却以夏、秋季增湿最明显。②喀什噶尔河全流域以及平原区和帕米尔高原的年气温与降水量都呈显著的线性增加趋势。平原区的秋、冬季气温显著上升,冬季最明显,夏季呈不显著的下降趋势;平原区的四季降水呈不显著的上升趋势。帕米尔高原的夏、秋、冬季气温呈显著的上升趋势,秋季最明显;帕米尔高原的四季降水呈上升趋势,只有夏季的增湿趋势较显著。③喀什噶尔河年径流量(3站合计)近47年来呈显著的线性上升趋势,以3.0%.(10 a)-1的速率增加。流域内3条河流情况有所不同,克孜河径流量的线性增加趋势最明显,而盖孜河呈不显著的下降趋势。

This paper analyzes the change trends of temperature and precipitation in the Kaxgar River Basin, alluvial plain and Pamirs and of the annual runoff volume at the debouchure hydrological stations in the river basin using the data observed by 7 meteorological stations and 3 hydrological stations in the Kaxgar River Basin. The results are as follows： （1） The average annual temperature and the seasonal temperatures in winter and autumn have significantly increased since the 1990s, especially in spring since recent 5 years. The annual precipitation in the river basin and Pamirs has considerably increased since the 1990s, and it has significantly increased in the alluvial plain since recent 5 years. The precipitation increase in the Kaxgar River Basin in spring and summer has been significant since the 1990s, and it has been considerable in autumn and winter since recent 5 year. Since recent 5 years, the precipitation over the alluvial plain has increased in spring, autumn and winter, whereas it has increased over the Pamirs mainly in summer and autumn. （2） The annual temperature and precipitation in the Kaxgar River Basin, Pamirs and alluvial plain is in a linear increase trend. The temperature inerease over the alluvial plain is the most significant in winter, then in autumn and winter, and the temperature in summer decreases slightly. The average seasonal precipitation increases slightly. The ~asonal temperature over the Pamirs increases significantly in summer, autumn and winter, especially in autumn; the seasonal precipitation over the Pamirs is also in a slight increase trend, especially in summer. （3） The total annual runoff volume at 3 hydrological stations in the Kaxgar River Basin has been in a significant linear increase trend since recent 47 years, and the decennary increase rate is 3.0 %. However, the trends of annual runoff volume are different from different tributaries of the Kaxgar River, that is the annual runoff volume of the Kez River is in a significant linear increase trend, but that of the Gez River is in a slight decrease trend.