纺织品出口与纺织工业增长的协整关系研究

The Cointegration Relationship Between Textile Exportation and Textile Industry Growth

纺织工业在西方工业发达国家属于夕阳产业,中国的纺织业也面临产业结构升级的紧迫任务,但纺织业作为劳动密集型产业对于缓解中国日益严峻的就业压力具有非常重要的现实意义。纺织品出口与纺织工业经济增长之间是否存在稳定的关系,是值得关注的一个大问题。根据协整理论,利用中国1985-2004年的年度经济数据对中国纺织品出口贸易和纺织工业经济增长的关系进行实证分析。实证结果表明:纺织工业经济增长和中国纺织品出口贸易存在着比较稳定的协整关系,但是二者之间不存在因果关系,这主要是由于我国的纺织业的内需影响因素很大。

Textile industry belongs to the sunset industry in the western industrialized countries. China＇s textile industry also faces the urgent pressure that the industrial structure should be promoted. However, textile industry as the laborintensive form industry can alleviate the China ＇ s stem employment burden. Between textile exportation and textile industry economy grows a wide concem about whether there exist the stable relationship.According to ceoperation theory, the paper samples China＇s 1985 - 2004 year economical data, to analyzes the relationship between which to the growth of textile export trade and textile industry economy. The findings indicat the stable conintegration relationship between textile industry economy and Chinese textile export trade.